The effect of climate change on surface and groundwater resources using WEAP-MODFLOW models

Abstract In addressing management scenarios and climate changes, it is necessary to consider surface water groundwater resources as an integrated system. this context, the present research first simulates evaluates simultaneously; then, examines possible effects of change on these in study area (Mahabad, Northwest Iran). stage, WEAP-MODFLOW model was applied a 10-year period (2006–2015) order take into account interactions between calibrate amount recharge drainage from aquifer. second effect resources, we compared micro-scale outputs under RCP4.5 scenario for different models 2021–2045. The results show that root-mean-square error (RMSE) mean absolute (MAE) scores are equal 0.89 0.79 unsteady conditions, respectively, which confirm efficient performance simulation. addition, WEAP based MARE assessment criteria calibration validation modes 0.54 54.0, respectively. This finding provides evidence simulation model. Once were specified, R 2 NS suggested indices 0.62 0.59, Mahabad hydrometric station. proposed runoff therefore confirmed. Owing period, decreased by about 1.6–1.9 m. Moreover, declined 0.1 0.001 MCM/month all months except December. Unless appropriate decisions taken improve strategies reduce change, conditions region will suffer irreparable damages future.